More than two decades after reclaiming its sovereignty and independence, Somaliland continues to march forward.
 
The memories of the disastrous “union” with Somalia fade with each passing year and so they should, for they brought forth nothing but neglect, prosecution and finally destruction.
 
A new generation of Somalilanders have come of age, free, confident, proud and raring to take the reins of leadership in their country.
 
Somaliland has finally began to realise its potential. The nation is democratic with national institutions, a flourishing economy and basic services are being delivered. We have come a long way, but there is still so much more to achieve.
 
With the winning formula of dialogue, discussion and consensus (without external influence or intrusion) still working, we have given terrorism and piracy short shrift.
 
We have secured our own borders and resolve any internal problems with the unique Somaliland formula, inclusion, tolerance and above adherence to the tenets of democracy.
 
With each passing year the fulfilment of Somalilanders’ aspirations continue unabated.
 
But, with all these remarkable achievements, we must not become complacent. The people of Somaliland must remain vigilant and united against the forces of individualistic ambitions.
 
There are among us those who enjoy the fruits of Somaliland ’s peace, democracy and progress, yet yearn for the defunct “union”.
 
But, they should know that in the land of freedom and democracy, the majority is always right.
 
The wishes of the minority shall be acknowledged and respected, but as long as the majority of Somalilanders, irrespective of community, social and economic ties wish to be an independent and sovereign nation; by the beneficence and mercy of Allahu Suxbaana Wa Tacaala, this shall be.
 
There is strength in unity and for over two decades we have remained strong. We must not weaken when the ultimate goal is close at hand.
 
The monumental mistake of 1960 has been corrected, at a terrible price and shall never be repeated. But, we must not settle for a compromise. We must fulfil our destiny as an independent and sovereign state.
 
After 22 years of progress and development, the child has become an adult ready to take control of his/her own destiny; unafraid, ambitious and above all, a free Somalilander.
 

After the conclusion of the recent London conference to bolster support for the fledgling provisional administration in Mogadishu, two things became quite clear.
1.       There must be a two state solution for Somaliland and the rest of the defunct “Somali Republic”
2.       The International Community is throwing the last dice on Somalia with the administration of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and the hopes of  a democratically elected government in 2016.
Otherwise, after the usual speeches and back-slapping, the situation in Somalia still remains the same. The fledgling provisional administration has all the trappings and public relations of a “proper” government but only controls less  than half of the Benadir region, and has to rely on the co-operation of regional players like Puntland and Galmudug and to the protection of AMISON.

It is in the interest of Somaliland for a legitimate government to emerge in Mogadishu.  A democratic government which can proceed from the recent Ankara Accords to the eventual conclusion of an amicable solution of two sovereign and independent states, The Republic of Somaliland and the Federal Republic of Somalia.

As we had seen recently, attempts were made in the Somali constituent assembly to void the agreements in Ankara. These moved were led by a certain group who have made their enmity to Somaliland quite clear, however, their attempts failed, mainly due to the fact, that the Ankara Accords are the only peaceable way of resolving the issue of the future relationship between Somaliland and Somalia.
And this very point was acknowledged by the final communique of the London conference, that the talks held in Turkey are the way forward to clarify the future relationship between Somaliland and Somalia. And as all Somalilanders are well aware, that future relationship is one of two states, neighbours with all the economic, social and cultural ties, but no political ties.
Two sovereign and independent states willing to co-operate on all major issues in the regions, but Somaliland is Somaliland and Somalia is Somalia.

As we approach the 22nd anniversary of the reclamation of Somaliland’s sovereignty in 1991, a lot of naysayers are fixated on the lack of international de-jure recognition, but what they have failed to realise that with each passing day, month, year;   Somaliland and Somalia grow farther apart, and with a new generation at the age 22, knowing nothing but Somaliland, the defunct union is either a chapter in history or a distant memory.

With nothing to entice Somalilanders to Somalia, and no sense of true acknowledgement from those in Somalia for the achievements of Somaliland and the crimes of the defunct union against Somaliland, there will never be anything to revive the mirage of the greater “Somalia”.
There are now just two sides of the argument, the Somaliland camp and the Somalia camp, one must choose one side.

The slogans of “midnimo” (unity) are futile, just like the slogans of “scientific socialism” were.   To those who believe in Somaliland, Somaliland is there for them, and for those who believe in Somalia, then Mogadishu awaits.
We are fast approaching the point of official separation, and it is now time to choose sides. Somalilanders will always be loyal and show fidelity to Somaliland, and to those who seek to represent only themselves in Mogadishu, then now is the time to declare your intentions.
 
 



 
I would like to express my earnest gratitude to the Turkish Government for hoisting the Somalia and Somaliland Governments dialogue which has been finalised in Ankara on 13 April 2013. All the members in the dialogue for Somaliland and Somalia which were led by the two presidents; Hon. Ahmed M Mohamoud (silanyo) and Hon. Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud also deserve compliments.  The fourth point of the communiqué prompted me to write is short analysis or comment to the effect that this agreement may entail in the setting of Somaliland and Somalia both in the short and long term.
 
From my point of view the seven points of the communiqué of Ankara Agreement between Somalia and Somaliland, the fourth point of the agreement that reads ‘Agreed to encourage and facilitate the international aid and development provided to Somaliland’’ is the master key of the new door of the Horn and to me at least it  has the interpretation of endorsing and accepting the powers of the Federal Government of Somalia over Somaliland and thus equates the Somaliland Government to other regional governments of Somalia. All other points, except number seven, could be fitted in under the fourth which is the mother of all as usual business.
 
The fourth point negates the persistent claim of Somaliland as being a sacrosanct entity that dissociated from Somalia in 1991. That barrier or ideology of never to be again with Somalia is now banished overnight, presumably with the intention of both sides or one side, by the magic two simple words ‘encourage and facilitate’ which the second word closes the lid of the hope of independence of Somaliland as ALL the Financial aid and development to Somaliland will be endorsed by the Federal Government of Somalia from now on to my understanding.
 
On the other side of the coin, this meeting served to the interest or the advantage of the Turkish and Western petroleum companies, and also has a significant economical advantage to Somaliland in the short term. Furthermore, it may backfire to the intention of Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s side to Sign this seven–point agreement as some people in Somalia may get infuriated by this outcome. In the long term it changes the political and economical direction of both Somalia and Somaliland as the future focal point of the Horn will be shifted to the North as a strategic point of investment that will also exert a pull on the South to unite Somaliland without political arrangement similar to the Union of the 1960 – name might transform later. This is because the regions in the South (Somalia) are now immersing into a situation that will weaken the function and continuation or replacement of this Federal Somali Government. That situation is purportedly marred by political contention of emerging tribal regions which Kismayo is the last catalyst of this process which has  the backing of some visible and invisible foreign hands that may after this stage exit through the index finger  which is the most further end of the Somali soil.
In conclusion, for better or worse, we are now facing reality and we should come in terms with the outcome of the Ankara meeting and get prepared for the change and the way forward. Not the way Somalia wants and not the way Somaliland wanted. It is somewhere in between and that is the future shape of the Horn of Africa. The interest of the world!
 
Mohamoud Hassan Arrale
Arrale3@yahoo.com

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Wanted: investors for small African nation with good oil and mineral potential – no seat at the United Nations but history of independence in rough neighborhood.
The break-away nation of Somaliland is a tough sell but the announcement this week that serious hydrocarbon exploration is about to kick off there shows that oil talks, regardless of political status.For Somaliland, an internationally unrecognised state of 3.5 million people that declared independence from Somalia in 1991, it promises to be a game changer.
"We need to find a way to earn hard currency besides selling goats, sheep and camels to Arabs. This is the only way we earn hard currency now," Hussein Abdi Dualeh, the minister of energy and mining, told Reuters on the sidelines of an African oil conference in South Africa organised by Global Pacific & Partners.

Ophir Energy Plc, Australia-based Jacka Resources and Genel Energy, which is headed by former BP chief executive Tony Hayward, are all about to start exploration in Somaliland.

Dualeh said the investments would be worth tens of millions of dollars, small change in the global oil industryhttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png but a windfall to a government that only has a budget of $120 million.
Gas discoveries off Mozambique and Tanzania and oil finds in Uganda and Kenya have sparked a hydrocarbon scramble into previously unexplored parts of Africa.
Oil companieshttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png often go where other investors fear to tread, including other unrecognized statelets such as Kurdistan.
"Oil companies are concerned about geology, not politics," Dualeh said.
He also said Somaliland offered investors something sorely lacking in anarchic Somalia: stability.
"We control our borders, we have a police force and military. We have had four governments come and go with democratic elections," he said.
The territory has not exactly been an oasis of peace
And what about pirates?
"The pirate problem is not off our coast, it starts in the Indian Ocean with Somalia. We have a nimble coast guard that does its job with limited resources," Dualeh said.
If oil is discovered, Somaliland would also welcome the steady stream of revenue that would follow.
Dualeh said livestock sales across the Red Sea to Saudi Arabia followed a seasonal pattern with sales peaking during the annual haj pilgrimage.
"We need to get stuff out of the ground. Selling livestock during the haj is not sustainable," he said.
 
Source;Reuters
Edited ;Abdirahman Bidhan Dahir   bcfm radio Bristol  93.2fm